FELIX NWANERI writes on the disclosure by former Vice President Atiku that some leaders of the primary opposition political events have agreed to kind a coalition that may unseat the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) within the 2027 presidential election
Because the build-up to the 2027 common election progressively gathers momentum, there are indications that historical past could repeat itself given the transfer by some chieftains of the opposition political events to kind an alliance that may confront the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) within the presidential ballot.
Former Vice-President Atiku Abubakar, who confirmed endorsement of the alliance by key opposition leaders like Mr. Peter Obi of the Labour Party (LP) and Nasir El-Rufai of the Social Democratic Party (SDP, whereas talking throughout a press convention in Abuja, on Thursday final week, mentioned they’ve kickstarted a motion aimed toward defeating President Bola Tinubu of the APC within the 2027 election.
The press convention, organised by involved political leaders and stakeholders in response to President Tinubu’s declaration of a state of emergency in Rivers State, was attended by key political figures, together with El-Rufai, who lately resigned his membership of the APC and ex-governor of Imo State, Emeka Ihedioha.
Others are former Director Common of Progressive Governors Discussion board (PGF), Dr. Salihu Lukman, erstwhile Secretary to the Government of the Federation (SGF), Babachir Lawal; Nationwide Secretary of the Coalition of United Political Events (CUPP) Peter Ahmeh and the convener of The Different Political Motion, Segun Showunmi. Obi, who was absent, was represented by Dr. Yunusa Tanko, Nationwide Coordinator of the Obidient Motion.
When requested whether or not the rising coalition will function the primary opposition towards the APC within the 2027 elections, Atiku, who was the presidential candidate of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) within the 2023 elections, mentioned:
“Sure, that is the start of the coalition of opposition forward of 2027.” Atiku, who was the presidential candidate of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) within the 2023 elections, had in November final 12 months, known as on the opposition political events to come back collectively and create a extra formidable entrance that may salvage Nigeria’s democracy.
He then identified {that a} formidable coalition is important to handle the perceived decline in democratic values and to forestall Nigeria from turning into a de facto one-party system.
He additionally famous that the challenge of defending democracy within the nation just isn’t about only one man. His phrases: “The challenge of defending democracy in our nation just isn’t about only one man.
You could have come right here in the present day to say that we should always cooperate to advertise democracy. However the reality of the matter is that our democracy is quick turning into a one-party system; and, after all, you understand that when we’ve got a one-party system, we should always simply neglect about democracy. “Now we have all seen how the APC is more and more turning Nigeria right into a dictatorship of 1 get together.
If we don’t come collectively to problem what the ruling get together is attempting to create, our democracy will endure for it, and the results of it should have an effect on the generations but unborn.” Atiku didn’t cease at his name for the opposition to shut ranks; he later met with Obi.
The previous vice-president had 6.9 votes within the 2023 presidential ballot to put second to Tinubu, who had 8.7 million votes, whereas Obi, who got here third, polled 6.1 million votes.
APC’s merger expertise
The APC coming collectively of a variety of political events in 2013 to kind the All Progressives Congress (APC) forward of the 2015 common election re-enacted an present development in Nigeria’s politics known as politics of merger or politics of alliance.
APC’s emergence on the time was like a bolt out of the blues not as a result of Nigerians weren’t conscious of the get together’s coming, however as a result of no one anticipated that the primary opposition political events at the moment would shut ranks and fuse into one platform.
The events that dissolved into APC had been Motion Congress of Nigeria (ACN), Congress for Progressive Change (CPC), All Nigeria Peoples Party (ANPP) in addition to factions of All Progressives Grand Alliance (APGA) and the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) in any other case often called New PDP.
Whereas it was doubt in some political quarters then towards the backdrop that the majority earlier mergers by no means labored, founding members of the APC expressed optimism that their get together will defeat the then ruling Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) within the 2015 presidential election.
Their dream turned to actuality, when towards expectations, the candidate of the then opposition get together, Muhammadu Buhari, defeated the incumbent president, Goodluck Jonathan, by 15.4 million to 12.8 million votes.
APC’s victory not solely minimize shot of PDP’s dream of being on the helm of affairs for 60 years as its leaders boasted at a time, however marked the primary time an incumbent president would lose election in Nigeria’s political historical past.
Opposition on a well-recognized path
Whereas there isn’t a doubt that the majority Nigerians are prone to welcome another political platform that may give Tinubu a run for his cash within the 2027 presidential election given the idea that his administration has not met expectations of the folks, the transfer by the opposition to rally towards the AP just isn’t the primary time such transfer could be made to show the political desk towards the APC because it got here to energy in 2015.
Recall that claims of dismal efficiency towards the instant previous Buhari-led APC authorities prompted requires a 3rd drive to unseat him within the 2019 common election. Consequently, political alliances had been muted and large names flaunted.
The transfer received heightened, when former President Olusegun Obasanjo led the primary set of coalition below the aegis of Coalition of Nigeria Motion (CNM). Obasanjo not solely rallied a few of his loyalists, together with a former governor of Osun State, Prince Olagunsoye Oyinlola, he promised to be a part of the wrestle.
Nevertheless, on the inauguration of the CNM, the ex-president canvassed for a motion that’s not essentially a political get together from the outset, however might later take the type of a celebration and lead the nation to the Promised Land. The start of CNM spurred different teams just like the Nigerian Intervention Motion (NIM), led by a former President of the Nigeria Bar Affiliation (NBA), Olisa Agbakob.
What adopted had been merger talks between the respective teams and a few political events. One of many outcomes of the talks was CNM’s fusion with the African Democratic Congress (ADC). Expectedly, the alliance strikes attracted a better share of youths, who had been buoyed by the passage of the Not Too Younger To Run Invoice and its assent to legislation.
The assumption of most youths then was that new approaches are wanted for the nation’s issues towards emphasis on age and expertise. However politics being a sport of curiosity masquerading as a contest of ideas; it didn’t take time earlier than cracks appeared within the coalitions.
Whereas lack of cohesion and disagreement over alternative of presidential candidates contributed to the crumbling of the coalitions, the final straw that broke the camel’s again was when Obasanjo made a detour and endorsed the candidacy of Atiku, who served as vp throughout his reign and was nominated for the ballot by the PDP.
The aftermath was that the much-anticipated hope of a break from the previous by no means materialised therefore Buhari and a number of other different public workplace holders at the moment, considered by many as members of the previous order, had been re-elected with solely a pocket of youths making it to the legislative homes.
There was one other transfer towards the APC forward of the 2023 elections, when some notable politicians rallied below the aegis of Rescue Nigeria Mission (RNP) to cease the get together from returning to energy.
Arrowheads of the transfer then had been a former governor of Kwara State, Abdulfatah Ahmed; onetime presidential candidate, Prof. Pat Utomi; ex-Minister of Education, Prof. Tunde Adeniran; a former governor of Cross River State, Donald Duke and erstwhile Nationwide Chairman of the Impartial Nationwide Electoral Fee (INEC), Prof. Attahiru Jega. Nevertheless, just like the 2019 transfer, nothing got here out of the bid.
Questions over transfer
Whereas the opposition’s push for a coalition indicators a big problem to the APC’s maintain on energy, the questions over the bid are:
Will the opposition leaders shut ranks this time given their respective ambitions to contest the presidential election? Even when they achieve coming collectively, can they maintain the steam given the truth that it takes greater than merger or alliance to unseat a ruling get together?
To most analysts, the proposed alliance will hit the rocks if its arrowheads are taking a look at only a platform to actualise their particular person presidential ambitions. Whereas there aren’t any declarations but for the 2027 presidential election, key opposition figures like Atiku, Obi and El-Rufai are prone to contest the ballot given their respective physique languages.
The query towards this backdrop is: Who will step down for the opposite among the many trio if the suggest alignment works, and on which platform will the candidate contest the election?
The assumption that promoters of the coalition face a herculean activity t is based on the divergent views being expressed by the management of the varied camps, championing the alliance. As an example, it was a twist, when the Nationwide Chairman of the SDP, Alhaji Shehu Gabam, dismissed any political alliance with Atiku and ElRufai forward of the 2027 common election.
Gabam, who spoke in an interview with a tv station asserted that the SDP stays targeted on strengthening its inner buildings and presenting Nigerians with a reputable political various. “There’s no alliance with anybody. Because the chairman of the get together, I’ve not engaged in any discussions about alliances.
Our focus is on reviewing our methods from 2024 and constructing a dynamic, inclusive platform,” he mentioned. The SDP nationwide chairman, who criticized the ruling APC and foremost opposition PDP, mentioned each events have failed to fulfill the expectations of Nigerians, making it crucial for residents to contemplate alternate options.
Obi, on his half, has constantly maintained that he’s not towards the thought of a coalition forward of the 2027 presidential ballot, however insists that he won’t ever be part of any alliance solely targeted on seizing energy with out prioritising the welfare of residents.
The coalition seems like a really portent one that will transform a really formidable problem to President Tinubu come 2027 past the way in which these round him are reacting to it
His phrases: “Let me set the document straight: I’m not towards coalition. In fact, I’m for it not for energy seize however to place Nigeria for greatness. I’ve not, and can by no means, advocate for any coalition or alliance that doesn’t prioritize the welfare and progress of the abnormal Nigerian.
“Any dialogue about governance should centre on what it means for the on a regular basis Nigerian, the way it will handle crucial points reminiscent of entry to high quality healthcare, training and pulling folks out of poverty.
Too usually in our nation’s historical past, people and teams have come collectively solely for the aim of taking energy for energy’s sake. “Such endeavours, devoid of real objective and imaginative and prescient, have solely deepened our challenges, leaving the abnormal Nigerian to bear the brunt of dangerous governance.
That is what I stand firmly towards. “Management should be about service, not self-interest. It should be about constructing a nation the place alternatives abound for all, the place justice and fairness are non-negotiable, and the place governance works for the folks, not towards them.
“As I’ve at all times maintained, the New Nigeria is feasible. Nevertheless it requires us to vary the way in which we take into consideration energy. It isn’t about grabbing it; it’s about utilizing it responsibly to rework lives and safe a brighter future for generations to come back.”
For El-Rufai, he lately famous his presidential political ambition in 2027, will rely on the get together and the need of the folks. “It isn’t for me to resolve; it’s the get together and the folks that may resolve. Even after I was contesting for governor, it was those that met and satisfied Buhari, and he known as me and requested me to contest,” he mentioned.
Presidency, APC say coalition gained’t fly
Reacting to the coalition transfer by the opposition leaders, the presidency boasted that no quantity of gang-up will cease President Tinubu’s re-election in 2027.
The Particular Adviser on Info and Technique to the President, Mr, Bayo Onanuga, made the declaration, additionally mentioned that his principal is not going to be distracted by the opposition politicians. He acknowledged thisi n an announcement on his X deal with, titled:
“My message to the coalition of Tinubu haters.” The assertion learn: “President Tinubu is concentrated on governance to construct a affluent nation. He’s on the way in which to reaching this. Two months to his midterm, he has many strong achievements to showcase. Intractable issues are being tackled headlong.
“He can’t be distracted by the so-called coalition of politicians. They aren’t politicians after the general public good. It’s all about their selfinterest. They’re disgruntled. They’re a annoyed lot. The leaders are sore losers. The coalition is an amalgam of Tinubu haters. Their agenda is to cease Tinubu.”
Sunday Dare, Particular Adviser on Media and Public Communications to the President, had earlier suggested the main opposition figures – Atiku, Obi and Rabiu Kwankwaso of New Nigeria Peoples Party (NNPP) – in addition to different critics like El-Rufai and Rotimi Amaechi (a former governor of Rivers State) to attend until the subsequent common election earlier than they flex muscle mass. Insisted that the actions of the opposition leaders are untimely, he mentioned: “That is 2025, not 2027. Let those that need to check their recognition with Nigerians look ahead to the subsequent election.”
He emphasised that President Tinubu stays targeted on his mandate to enhance the lives of Nigerians and construct a resilient economic system, regardless of the distractions. “The one dialog he (Tinubu) desires to have now could be tips on how to enhance the lives of Nigerian residents and constructive discourse on constructing a resilient economic system,” he mentioned.
Nationwide Chairman of the APC, Abdullahi Ganduje, who additionally dismissed the opposition leaders, mentioned no political gang-up will cease President Tinubu’s re-election in 2027. Ganduje, in an announcement by his Senior Particular Assistant on Public Enlightenment, Oliver Okpala, reiterated that any northerner occupied with contesting in 2027 ought to droop such ambition and wait until 2031.
He added that the North’s assist for Tinubu’s reelection in 2027 is unshakable. “Tinubu will certainly emerge victorious due to his unparallel efficiency since he assumed workplace as president. Overlook the current political gatherings and ranting by some politicians who presently shouldn’t have any identifiable political base.
“Their gathering from the LP, PDP, SDP and others are folks with totally different political ideologies and egocentric political pursuits that may by no means agree on any subject politically. The gathering is an assemblage of individuals with divergent political pursuits. No quantity of political association or gang up can cease the nice folks of Nigeria from re-electing Tinubu as President in 2027,” Ganduje mentioned.
Nationwide Vice Chairman of the APC (South-East), Dr Ijeoma Arodiogbu, on his half, mentioned the ruling get together just isn’t fearful over the strikes by the opposition figures. His phrases: “As it’s within the Bible; certainly they shall collect they usually shall scatter. We’re not fearful that they’re gathering as a result of they are going to positively scatter. We’re not fearful about what ElRufai does subsequent.
We all know that his trajectory in politics is extremely disturbed now. “After our election in 2023, he displayed himself as a person who can’t be trusted throughout the areas. The way in which he disparaged Christians in Nigeria, a secular society, has made him a leper. No one goes wherever near him. El-Rufai is simply determined for recognition now and I’m wondering why the media is giving him that spotlight.
“We’re not fearful concerning the unholy alliance as a result of it should quantity to nothing. It’s only a gathering of disgruntled folks, attempting to lick their wounds. Tinubu stays the president and there’s no one that may cease him in 2027.”
Arodiogbu famous that the reforms of the Tinubu administration, which the opposition could also be planning to marketing campaign with are at the moment yielding the specified outcomes Nigerians, so the folks can’t afford to give up management to determined politicians whose sole curiosity is state seize.
“When 2027 comes, what is going to they use to marketing campaign to Nigerians? Will they inform them that they plan to reintroduce gasoline subsidy? Not potential! We’re already bouncing again to the times of glory. They’ve seen that foreign exchange t is stabilised, and the individuals are starting to see a light-weight on the finish of the tunnel.”
Stakeholders differ on coalition’s workability
Whereas it’s dismissal of any potential menace the proposed coalition is prone to pose for Tinubu by the management of the APC, some opposition stakeholders, who spoke on the event, mentioned the workability of the coalition will rely extra on get together construction relatively than reliance on personalities.
A former PDP Nationwide Vice Chairman (South-West), Eddy Olafeso, who mentioned coalition is the one assure to defeat APC n 2027, suggested his get together to talk with Obi and leaders of different opposition events.
“Not solely Peter Obi, each particular person, who’s someone on this nation and might really garner one or two votes should be spoken with,” he mentioned, insisting that will probably be tough for any single political get together to defeat the APC and not using a sturdy alliance. “It isn’t solely right here that you’ve alliances; you might have folks working collectively to have the ability to win an election.
It occurred in Ghana not fairly a way back and that’s precisely what all of us ought to do at this second, no single get together can defeat the APC alone, don’t allow us to delude ourselves.
We should all come collectively to combat,” he mentioned. Founder and Pioneer Nationwide Chairman of APGA, Chief Chekwas Okorie, in an interview with New Telegraph, expressed the sensation that the coalition poses a menace to Tinubu’s re-election bid.
His phrases: “The coalition seems like a really portent one that will transform a really formidable problem to President Tinubu come 2027 past the way in which these round him are reacting to it as a result of I do know that these behind the coalition are plotting to divide Southern Nigeria by bringing a candidate, who will do exactly 4 years with the intention to permit the area full its eight years in step with the rotation settlement, in order that energy can return to the North in 2031.
“The trump card on this calculation is Peter Obi and the idea of that arrowheads of the plot is that Obi, not like President Goodluck Jonathan, is not going to renege on any settlement he’s prone to enter with the North given his antecedent.
Whereas Jonathan is claimed to have reneged on the settlement that he’ll full Umar Yar’Adua’s first time period, in order that the North will substitute him in 2011, promoters of the coalition consider that there isn’t a motive to doubt Obi.
So, Atiku is prone to step down for Obi. As soon as that’s performed, 2027 might be a performed deal. “So, count on critical realignment of political forces within the days forward. You will note CPC parts within the APC and supporters of former President Buhari leaving the ruling get together for the SDP or every other platform these behind the coalition will agree on.
And, mark my phrases, APC will get up to actuality very quickly. “Sadly, these across the President are busy attracting extra political opponents for him relatively than supporters.
They aren’t even wanting on the numbers, which present that the North-West holds the ace on condition that the zone delivered bulk of the votes for Tinubu in 2023.
Tinubu is concentrated on governance to construct a affluent nation… He can’t be distracted by the so-called coalition of politicians. They aren’t politicians after the general public good. It’s all about their self-interest
“I’m not saying that they are going to lose in 2027, however Tinubu and his males should return to the political drafting board to try how they are going to survive as a result of it isn’t going to be straightforward the way in which they’re making it to appear to be because the 2027 presidency goes to be an epic democratic contest in Nigeria’s historical past.”
Nevertheless, a former governor of Kano State and Chairman of the League of Northern Democrats (LND), Malam Ibrahim Shekarau, who dismissed the opposition figures on the bottom that the coalition they’re pushing lacks the mandatory political construction to problem the APC, described their transfer as an off-the-cuff gathering of presidential aspirants relatively than a well-organized political merger.
He additionally famous that the coalition doesn’t have the backing of the management of main opposition events, significantly the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) and the Labour Party (LP). In keeping with him, the coalition is being pushed by people relatively than established political buildings, making it unlikely to pose a critical menace to the APC’s dominance.
His phrases: “The approaching collectively of some senior members of opposition events is a welcome growth, as seen lately below what they name a ‘coalition’ of opposition events.
However sadly, most individuals don’t understand that this so-called coalition has nothing to do with the main opposition events; PDP and LP.”
He contrasted the present scenario with the 2013 merger that led to the formation of the APC, which concerned the unification of 4 registered events, saying: “The primary political merger in Nigeria occurred in 2013 when 4 registered events merged to kind the APC. So, technically, the APC just isn’t a ‘new get together.’
It was an alliance of registered opposition political events that had been already well-established, with elected state governors, state and Nationwide Meeting members, and important grassroots assist.” Shekarau pointed to an identical coalition try in 2019, which introduced collectively 10 political events towards the APC however finally collapsed resulting from an absence of inclusiveness., mentioned:
“The 2019 ‘coalition’ was formally launched virtually a 12 months earlier than the elections, but not one of the then-elected PDP leaders was in attendance.
No quantity of noise-making or casual alliances by particular person politicians within the identify of opposition may have any influence in elections except the total management construction of opposition events in any respect ranges is concerned,” he warned.
He additional argued that the current ratification of President Tinubu’s emergency rule in Rivers State by the Nationwide Meeting uncovered the coalition’s lack of affect over opposition lawmakers.
In keeping with him, if the coalition leaders had any actual affect, the APC authorities wouldn’t have secured the required votes.
Regardless of his criticisms, Shekarau maintained that the opposition nonetheless has an opportunity to reorganize itself earlier than the 2027 elections if it focuses on real unity and strategic planning. “It’s nonetheless not too late.
I consider that with the precise imaginative and prescient, mission, and focus, mixed with a real sense of objective, the opposition can change its narrative in 2025 and place itself for fulfillment within the 2027 elections,” he mentioned.
A former Deputy Nationwide Chairman o the PDP, Chief Bode George who additionally faulted the coalition transfer, mentioned it’s being pushed by private ambition as a few of these pushing for the coalition have the ambition to change into president.
He mentioned: “All these folks saying they will float a mega get together, is there any of them who just isn’t bold to be president of Nigeria? Is that the actual method to fixing this drawback?
Do you suppose there’s any nation or get together that doesn’t have a disaster? All these teams who’re working round for his or her private ambition, they’re making a monumental mistake and they’re all dancing on the graves of our founding fathers.”
Olufemi Aduwo, the Everlasting Consultant of the Centre for Conference on Democratic Integrity (CCDI) on the United Nations, who additionally spoke on the coalition transfer, instructed New Telegraph that it’s going to take greater than coming collectively of opposition leaders to unseat Tinubu and his get together in 2027.
His phrases: “I’ve heard requires the opposition events to come back collectively to defeat Tinubu, however allow us to be sincere, many of those events are constructed round people, each the APC and PDP.
Take the formation of the APC in 2013. It took place from the merger of Nigeria’s three largest opposition events. The ACN, CPC and ANPP alongside a breakaway faction of APGA.
“These events had governors, which was essential. In November 2013, 5 serving governors from the PDP defected to the APC. Rotimi Amaechi of Rivers, Abdulfatah Ahmed of Kwara, Rabiu Kwankwaso of Kano, Murtala Nyako of Adamawa and Aliyu Wamakko of Sokoto.
Unknowingly to Atiku Abubakar, the walk-out led by him throughout PDP conference was the second his political ambition hit a useless finish. “Within the 2015 presidential ballot, the “New PDP” states delivered a large 3.3 million votes to Buhari, who defeated Jonathan by 2.5 million votes.
With out this group, the APC and Buhari would have misplaced. So, it isn’t sufficient for the opposition to easily unite, they should safe not less than seven APC governors.
Something much less, they’re merely participating in a sport of musical chairs with no actual substance. If they’re critical about change, they should win over key APC figures.”
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