FELIX NWANERI reports that tomorrow’s governorship elections in Bayelsa, Imo and Kogi states will be interesting as political gladiators in the three states go neck- and-neck into polls that have been characterised by intriguing and tensed build-up
The stakes are high as the peo- ple of Bayelsa, Imo and Kogi states go to the polls tomorrow to elect their governors. Although the gubernatorial contest in the three states are off-cycle polls, most Nigerians expect a nail-biting finish given the intrigues that characterised the build-up. The campaign, no doubt, has been frosty with a slew of controversies. According to the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC), about 5.4 million voters are expect to vote in the three states. Of the figure, Bayelsa has 1.05 million voters, Imo (2.4 million) and Kogi (two million).
Sixteen political parties are sponsoring candidates in Bayelsa; 17 par- ties in Imo, while 18 parties are field- ing candidates in Kogi. A total of 46,084 regular and ad hoc staff would be deployed for the elections, while 126 national and international organisations are collectively deploying over 11,000 observers.
Two sitting governors – Douye Diri (Bayelsa) and Hope Uzodimma (Imo) – are seeking re-election, while the con- test in Kogi will see the emergence of a new helmsman for the state as the incumbent, Yahaya Bello, is serving out his second term. Also in the contest is a former governor, Timipre Silva and two former senators – Samuel Anyanwu and Dino Melaye. Interestingly, most of the candidates across the three states are either former political allies or archrivals.
Polls as test of might for leading parties
All the 18 registered political are fielding candidates for the elections, but most analysts believe that the con- test would be more of a three-horse race between the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) and main opposition Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) and Labour Party (LP) given their respective performances in the February/March general election in which the ruling party consolidated its hold on power.
The presidential candidate of the APC, Bola Tinubu, defeated 17 others in the February 25 presidential poll to ensure that the party retains the presidency. Tinubu polled 8.7 million votes to defeat his closest rivals – Atiku Abubakar of PDP and Peter Obi of LP, who garnered 6.9 million votes and 6.1 million votes to place second and third, respectively. The keenly contested poll saw Tinubu and Atiku winning 12 states apiece, while Obi won in 11 states and the Federal Capital Territory (FCT), Abuja.
The states won by Tinubu are Ekiti, Ogun, Oyo, Kwara, Benue, Niger, Kogi, Zamfara, Rivers, Borno, Ondo and Jigawa. Those won by Atiku are Osun, Gombe, Yobe, Ad- amawa, Katsina, Sokoto, Kebbi Bauchi, Kaduna, Akwa Ibom, Taraba and Bayelsa. Obi won in Enugu, Lagos, Nasarawa, Delta, Imo, Cross River, Ebonyi, Anambra, Abia, Edo, Plateau and FCT, while Rabiu Kwankwaso of New Nigeria Peoples Party (NNPP), who placed a distant fourth with 1.4 million votes. won in Kano.
In the National Assembly elections that held the same day with the presidential poll, eight out of the 18 political parties that fielded candidates for the Senate and House of Representatives, won seats in the federal legislature. The parties are APC, PDP, LP, NNPP, All Progressives Grand Alliance (APGA), African Democratic Congress (ADC), Young Progressives Party (YPP) and Social Democratic Party (SDP).
In the governorship election that held on March 18, the APC secured wins in 16 states, PDP won in nine states, while LP and NNPP won one state each. The states were gubernatorial poll held are Abia, Adamawa, Akwa Ibom, Bauchi, Benue, Borno, Cross River, Delta, Ebonyi, Enugu, Gombe, Jigawa, Kaduna, Kano, Kat- sina, Kebbi, Kwara, Lagos, Nasarawa, Niger, Ogun, Oyo, Plateau, Rivers, So- koto, Taraba, Yobe and Zamfara.
The ruling APC won in Benue, Borno, Cross River, Ebonyi, Gombe, Jigawa, Kaduna, Katsina, Kebbi, Kwara, Lagos, Nasarawa, Niger, Ogun, Sokoto and Yobe states. The states won by the PDP are Adamawa, Akwa Ibom, Bauchi, Delta, Enugu, Oyo, Plateau, Rivers, Taraba and Zamfara. LP and NNPP won in Abia and Kano states, respectively. The governorship polls did not hold in eight states – Anambra, Bayelsa, Edo, Ekiti, Imo, Kogi, Osun and Ondo.
The states are no longer part of the general election circle due to court judgements that nullified election of their governors at different time. At the moment, the ruling party is in control of 20 states, while the main opposition PDP is in charge of 13 states. LP, APGA and NNPP have one state each. The APC-controlled states are Borno, Cross River, Ebonyi, Ekiti, Gombe, Imo, Jigawa, Kaduna, Benue, Katsina, Kebbi, Kogi, Kwara, Lagos, Nasarawa, Niger, Ogun, Ondo, Yobe and Sokoto.
The PDP states are Adamawa, Akwa Ibom, Bauchi, Bayelsa, Delta, Edo, Enugu, Osun, Oyo, Rivers and Taraba, Zamfara and Plateau. LP is in charge in Abia, NNPP (Kano) and APGA (Anambra). No doubt, the leading candidates have what it takes in terms of party structure and financial strength to match each other at the polls, but given recent developments in the polity, analysts are of the view that it will amount to political gamble for any of the candidates and their respective parties to rely on the variables that shaped elections in the past. Personality and track record, according to these analysts will play a major in determining who wins the election in each of the three states.
Bayelsa: Sylva, 15 others aim to stop Diri
In what could pass as a rematch of the 2019 governorship contest, Governor Douye Diri of the PDP must scale the hurdle posed by the ambition of a former governor of the state and immediate past Minister of State for Petroleum Resources, Timipre Sylva, who is the standard bearer of the APC to secure a second term. Besides Sylva, the governor also has the candidate of Labour Party, Udengs Eradiri to contend with in the battle for the Creek Haven given the impact made by the party and the Obedient Movement in the general election.
There are 14 other candidates although analysts say they are in the contest to make up the number. They are Warmate Idikio (Accord), Akpoebi Bufumoh (AA), Stanley Kalango (ADC), Nengimonyo Subiri (APGA), Saturday Osharikeni (APM), Kemelayefa Ogbege (APP), Victor Ben (BP), Bestman Azeeb (NNPP), Akeem Michah (NRM), Erevade Ozato (PRP), Binalayefa Osuluku (SDP) and Imo- motimi Simeon (ZLP). Sylva is poised to reenact the November 16, 2019 election feat in which his anointed candidate, David Lyon, defeated Diri, who was then Governor Seriake Dickson’s choice.
In what was described as the most keenly governorship election in the history of the state, Lyon polled 352,552 votes to defeat Diri, who had 143,172 votes. Lyon won in six out of the eight local government areas of Bayelsa, while Diri won in only two local gov- ernment areas. The six local government areas won by the APC were Brass; Nembe; Ogbia, Southern Ijaw, Ekeremor and Yenagoa, while the PDP won in the Sagbama and Kolokuma/Opokuma local government areas.
In Sagbama, the APC polled 7, 831 votes while the PDP scored 60,339 votes. In Nembe, APC got 83,041 votes, while the PDP polled 874 votes. In Kolouma/Opokuma, the APC scored 8,934 votes, while the PDP scored 15,360 votes. In Brass, APC got 23,831 votes, while the PDP polled 10,410 votes. APC scored 24,607 votes in Yenagoa, while the PDP got 19,184 votes. In Ogbia, APC got 58,016 votes, while PDP polled 13,763 votes. In Southern Ijaw Local Government, the APC candidate polled 124,803 votes, while his PDP rival got 4,898 votes. Lyon also defeated Diri in Ekeremor by polling 21,489 to the PDP’s candidate’s 18,344 votes.
Lyon, however, had his election nullified by the Supreme Court less than 24 hours to his inauguration over a forgery case against his running mate, Biobarakuma Degi-Eremieoyo. While Sylva may be relying on the performance of the APC in the 2019 governorship election and federal might to stage a come-back to the Bayelsa governorship seat, the outcome of the 2023 general election in the state shows that he faces a herculean task as the PDP proved its dominance in the state.
The ruling PDP won the three senatorial seats of the state in the National Assembly polls. The party also won five of the House of Representatives seats in the state. In the state House of Assembly election, the PDP won 17 out of the 24 seats, while APC and All Progressives Grand Alliance (APGA) won five and two seats, respectively. Besides being seen as a rematch of the 2019 governorship election, the Bayelsa contest passes as another proxy political battle. Ex-Governor Dickson (now senator representing Bayelsa West), who is Sylva’s political rival, has thrown his weight behind Diri.
The former governor is not only optimistic that the second tenure of Governor Diri and his running mate is guaranteed, he insists that Sylva is on journey to nowhere as there is no opposition in the state to contend with the PDP in the election. However, while many see the Bayelsa election as a two-horse race between Diri and Sylva, the candidate of LP, Eradiri, believes that he is in the contest to win. Eradiri, a former National President of Ijaw Youth Council (IYC), served as commissioner in the Dickson administration.
Eradiri is banking on the traction his party got in the general election to demystify the PDP and APC even as he maintained that the only currency Diri and Sylva have is the people’s money.
Kogi: Ododo, Melaye, Ajaka as forerunners for Lugard House
The governorship election in Kogi State is a proxy battle as the candidate of the APC, Ahmed Usman Odo- do, who is Governor Yahaya Bello’s anointed squares up against Senator Dino Melaye and 16 others. The other candidates are Usman Jibrin (Accord – A), Olayinka Braimoh (Action Alliance), Leke Abejide (African Democratic Congress – ADC), Olayinka Braimoh (Action Alliance – AA), Augustine Achimugu (African Action Congress – AAC), Idoko Ilonah (All Progressives Grand Alliance (APGA), Dauda Isah (Allied Peoples Movement – APM) and Sunday Onaji (Action Peoples Party – APP).
Also on the list are Kabir Muhammad (Booth Party), Adejoh Okeme (Labour Party – LP), Bala Dirisu (National rescue Movement (NRM), Bayawo Abdullahi (Peoples Redemption Party – PRP), Muritala Ajaka (Social Democratic Party – SDP), Julius Elukpo (Action Democratic Party – ADP), Musa Mubarak (New Nigeria Peoples Party – NNPP), Sam- son Omale (Young Progressive Party – YPP) and Taiye Suleiman (Zenith Labour Party – ZLP).
The of number candidates, notwithstanding, most analysts believe that it is a three horse-race between the ruling APC, PDP and SDP given the strength of the parties in the state and their candidates as well as their backers. Melaye and Governor Bello, who is rooting for Ododo were once political allies. Melaye at a point not only described Bello as the chosen one for the Confluence State, but declared that anyone fighting him is fighting God.
The political romance, however turned sour, when Melaye became the most vociferous critic of the governor. Governor Bello is not contesting the election, but it is clear that he is not leaving anything to chance to ensure that Ododo succeeds him. The governor is banking on his political strategy that saw Ododo beating the likes of Senator Smart Adeyemi, Shaibu Audu, Stephen Ocheni, Sa- nusi Ohiare and Salami Ozigi in the APC gubernatorial primary.
Incumbency factor also favours the APC even as the PDP in Kogi State seems to have lost steam. To Governor Bello, the poll is as good as won by his party given the performance of his administration. He also insists that religion and ethnicity will not play any role in determining the outcome of the election. “We have tried to put aside the sentiments of ethnicity, religion or class.
Nineteen years of ethnic sentiments brought us to where we were before I came on board as governor. Melaye, however, appears unperturbed by the incumbency factor in favour of the APC. He says that he is the race to win in order to liberate Kogi State.
Imo: Uzodimma battles Anyanwu, Achonu for a second term
While 17 political parties are field- ing candidates for the poll, analysts say the contest for the Douglas House is a three-horse race between the incumbent, Hope Uzodimma (APC), Samuel Anyanwu (PDP) and Athan Achonu (LP). Interestingly. The trio were once members of the PDP, which perhaps, explains the intrigues that characterised the build-up to the election.
The other candidates are Uchenna Ojehi (Accord), Lincoln Ogunewe (AA), Emmanuel Awulonu (AAC), James Okoroma (ADC), Anthony Ejiogu (APGA), Clinton Edoziem (APM), Anderson Achila (APP), Isaac Iwuanyanwu (BP), Ben Odunze (NNPP), Lawrence Okwara (NRM), Bright Ekwebelem (SDP), Ikemdi Opara (YPP) and Andy Chibuike (ZLP).
Ordinarily, the ruling APC in the state would have had only the PDP, which enjoys some level of support in the Eastern Heartland to contend with, but the outcome of the 2023 general election shows that both parties have LP to contend with. Interesting scenarios have laced the Imo State political space ahead of the election, making it difficult for bookmakers to predict where the pendulum would swing to although Governor Uzodimma’s camp is upbeat of victory.
No doubt, LP had little or no presence in Imo before now, but it would be an understatement to say that it is the beautiful political bride in the South-East. The party’s performance in the presidential election, in which it won all the five states of the zone, a senatorial seat in Imo Sate and the governorship poll in Abia State, shows that it cannot be taken for granted. It is also believed that the party is the credible alternative in Imo State for now given the post-election crisis that rock the main opposition PDP.
But Uzodimma is of the view that Obi’s victory in Imo in the presidential election will not affect his chances in the governorship election. Obi had 352,904 votes in the state ahead of his closest challenger, Bola Tinubu of the APC, who scored 66,171 votes, while Atiku Abubakar of PDP placed third with 30,004 votes but Uzodimma is banking on his party’s performance in the national and state Assembly elections, where it won majority of the seats.
Despite the optimism in APC’s camp, Anyanwu of the PDP, said he is confident that his party will turn the table against the ruling party in the state. The LP candidate, Achonu, a former senator for Imo North Senatorial District, on his part, insists that Imo people will determine who will be their next governor.ssss
